Bitcoin Close Above This Will Trigger Rally to $70K, Will Fed Rate Cut Help?

The Bitcoin price has staged a strong recovery gaining 4.5% in the last 24 hours surging past $60,500 a day before the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. As per the technical chart, BTC has been trading range-bound in a down-trending channel. Thus, to set the bull run ahead, it would need to break past the top of the channel on a weekly chart. All eyes will be on the Fed rate cut with the market still uncertain whether Powell would opt for a 25 bps rate cut or a 50 bps rate cut. Banking giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expecting a modest beginning with a 25 bps interest rate cut.

Bitcoin Price Needs Firm Closure above $61,900

Popular crypto strategist Rekt Capital stated that the BTC price has been forming a series of lower highs since late July. Thus, the key level to watch this week would be $61,900, breaking above which could push Bitcoin into an upward trajectory.

Courtesy: Rekt Capital

Historically, BTC has always given a breakout nearly 150-160 days following the Bitcoin halving event. Thus, going with this historical calendar, the Bitcoin price will breakout from its reaccumulation range by late September 2024.

Furthermore, September has historically been the month of giving poor returns with an average decline of 4.48%. In contrast, October has shown average monthly gains of 22.9%. Thus, this could be the final phase of the long-term consolidation for BTC.

Will Fed Rate Cut Fuel BTC Rally?

At the FOMC meeting on September 18, the US Federal Reserve is planning for a major pivot in its monetary policy and opting for monetary easing through interest rate cuts. However, the Street remains divided on whether this would be a 25 bps rate cut or a 50 bps rate cut.

Here are the Fed rate cut odds heading into the big meeting.

50bps cut = 64%
25bps cut = 36%

I believe that Powell will cut by 25bps. pic.twitter.com/Zlpj9qy6vG

— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) September 17, 2024

The common consensus in the market has been that the Fed rate cut would flood more liquidity thereby being a catalyst to the Bitcoin price rally. However, renowned economist Peter Schiff stated that the rate cuts won’t actually benefit BTC. He said that this would eventually crush the dollar and reignite inflation.

On the other hand, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has demanded a 75 bps rate cut from the Fed. Custodia Bank founder Caitlin Long said that this would be interesting to watch whether Senator Warren has any weight of word in DC. In the past, she called Powell “a dangerous man” and it’s unlikely that the central bank governor would give any thought to her demands.

GRAB THE POPCORN–we’re all about to see whether @SenWarren still has political juice in DC. Remember, she once called Powell “a dangerous man;” & her minions control federal financial regulatory agencies right now. Will she get 75, or will she be revealed as swimming naked??? https://t.co/rVBoU9WFfw

— Caitlin Long (@CaitlinLong_) September 18, 2024

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