The crypto market entered a crucial week with eyes on crucial scheduled events like the US Presidential election 2024 and the FOMC interest rate cut decision. Notably, the market participants are bracing for highly volatile trading this week, with experts supporting the anticipation with historical trends. However, with soaring expectations of volatile trading, some also grew concerned over a potential market crash on the day of the election.
Will the Crypto Market Crash On US Election Day?
According to a recent report by The Kobeissi Letter on the X platform, the financial market is poised to witness highly volatile trading, irrespective of who wins the US election. Having said that, the crypto market investors are also appearing to stay on the sideline, seeking more clarity on the future of the market.
Notably, crypto has been one of the major issues on the US Presidential Election 2024 this year. Donald Trump has actively backed Bitcoin and the crypto market ahead of the election, with Kamala Harris also showcasing a strong interest in the technology sector.
Besides, Bitcoin and other top altcoins also showcase a positive performance after the US presidential election. Considering that, the market anticipates a similar picture this year, with Bitcoin potentially hitting a new ATH after the election.
US Election & Its Impact On The Crypto Market
The US political landscape has recently been closely associated with the cryptocurrency industry. Donald Trump’s recent backing of Bitcoin, with a flurry of politicians revealing their interest in the digital assets space, is expected the industry to witness strong gains after the election.
Meanwhile, the US election would provide cues on the future crypto market regulations. The US SEC and CFTC have different approaches when it comes to regulating digital assets. Besides, the US SEC and its Chair Gary Gensler have faced heavy backlash from the crypto community, with many blaming the agency for their regulatory overreach.
Having said that, the investors are now eyeing towards the upcoming election. Notably, many anticipate a change in administration to foster innovation in the digital assets space. Simultaneously, the investors are also expecting a similar stance by the Democrats as well, if Kamala Harris secures a victory in the election.
Previously, former US President Donald Trump publicly announced that he would fire Gary Gensler on his first day at the White House. This has sparked significant optimism among crypto market investors, who deems Gensler as an anti-crypto regulator.
On the other hand, traders have also lauded Donald Trump’s pledge to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve for the US. This development, if it happens, could significantly push the BTC price higher in the coming days. Besides, his vocal support towards the digital assets sector and calling himself “Crypto President” has bolstered optimism among investors.
How US Election Impact the Stock Market?
The Kobeissi Letter has recently shared an analysis of the election and historical stock market performance. Now, as the crypto market and stocks move in tandem lately, let’s take a look at the analysis and see how it could impact digital assets.
As the election approaches, analysts are scrutinizing the potential impact on the stock market and crypto performance. The Kobeissi Letter’s analysis reveals significant differences in stock market returns before and after Election Day, dating back to 1920.
Here are some of the important findings from the analysis:
Election Year Trends: 83% of election years saw positive returns leading up to Election Day, while only 67% had positive returns afterward.
Stock Performance: Stocks perform 4.2% better on average in the six months preceding an election compared to non-election years, but 1.4% worse in the six months following.
Economic Influence: The economy plays a crucial role in election outcomes, with only one instance of an incumbent party winning during a recession year since 1948.
Market Volatility: Elevated volatility is expected regardless of the election outcome, with the VIX index up 65% year-to-date.
Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11.3% return during election years since 1928, with 83% of years yielding positive performance. As the crypto market moves in tandem with stocks, investors are bracing for potential fluctuations. With gold prices surging and the VIX index elevated, traders are poised for a profitable ride amid the uncertainty.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter, X
What’s Next For Bitcoin And Altcoins?
Bitcoin is poised for volatile trading ahead of the election and the top altcoins are also expected to follow suit. Currently, BTC price traded near the $69K mark, after touching a high of $73,577.21 in the last seven days.
A recent Matrixport report showed that as the US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin remains neutral. Its 21-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 56%, below the overbought threshold of 70%. This suggests Bitcoin is neither oversold nor overbought, making it an attractive opportunity for selling volatility.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed the S&P 500’s performance after the US presidential elections, with significant gains in the year following the election. In 2012, 2016, and 2020, the S&P 500 saw notable growth, and Bitcoin followed suit.
Source: Matrixport, X
While past trends don’t guarantee future results, they offer valuable insights. As the election unfolds, investors will be watching closely to see how Bitcoin performs. Besides, the crypto market also anticipates a similar performance for the top altcoins.
Notably, a recent Bitcoin price analysis hints that the crypto is poised to witness a strong rally, irrespective of who wins the election. Although the market will likely record volatile trading or even a crash on the Election date, it is expected to make a quick rebound in the coming days. On the other hand, the US FOMC is also likely to boost the market sentiment, with the latest economic data indicating a 25bps Fed rate cut this week.
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