US JOLTS Shows Cooling Labor Market, Fed’s 0.5% Rate Cut Confirmed?

The global market eagerly awaits the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for insights on the US labor market condition. According to recent data, job openings for July came in at 7.7 million, down from the market expectations of 8.1 million. Meanwhile, this is a crucial metric considered by the US Federal Reserve to understand the health of the labor market, which in turn aids them in deciding their policy rates.

US JOLTS Comes In At 7.7 Million

According to the recent JOLTS data by the US Labor Department, the job openings came in at 7.7 million or 4.6%, down from the market forecast of 8.1 million. The figure was also down from 8.18 million in the prior month. Notably, the latest data shows a cooling labor market, which might pave the way for a dovish stance by the US Federal Reserve.

This data is also the lowest level since January 2021, while the previous month’s data was also revised downward, indicating a weaker labor market trend. The latest data showed that June’s figure was revised lower from 8.184 million to 7.910.

In addition, the data showed that the Quits came in at 3.3 million and layoffs and discharges were at 1.88 million. This data shows how workers are leaving jobs for better pay. On the other hand, the hiring came in at 5.5 million or 3.5% in July. All these metrics are go-to figures for the US central bank to decide their policy rate plans.

Meanwhile, this data was also crucial as the market is eagerly waiting for the US non-farm payroll data, which is expected to be released on Friday, September. This marks one of the crucial data before the central bank officials’ gathering later this month, where the US Fed is expected to announce a potential interest rate cut.

Impact On Fed Rate Cut Decision

The US Dollar Index came under renewed pressure following the release, as evidenced by a drop of 0.45% to $101.310 during writing. Simultaneously, the US 10-year bond yield was down 1.32% to 3.793.

Meanwhile, this was one of the crucial data ahead of the upcoming US Job data scheduled for later this week. Notably, bets over a 50 bps rate cut are increasing as the Fed’s September meeting approaches. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 53% probability of a 25 bps point cut by the US central bank in September, down from the recent 61% chance.

In addition, in a recent report, Citi analysts also predict that the US Fed is likely to announce a 50 bps rate cut at their upcoming gathering. Having said that, it could trigger a rally in Bitcoin and top altcoins, bolstering the broader market sentiment.

However, after the US JOLTS data, the BTC price was down nearly 3% to $56,354, with its trading volume increasing 27% to $32.32 billion. Simultaneously, Ethereum’s price also slumped 2.46% to $2,397.

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