Bitcoin price today is down 0.62% and trades at $55,800. The technical and on-chain analysis reveals that a Bitcoin crash to $49,000 is inevitable. According to experts, this plummet in BTC could occur over the weekend.
Bitcoin Price Could Crash to $49,000: Arthur Hayes
The past week has shown that Bitcoin bulls are losing steam. Almost all attempts at scaling higher have been met with equal spikes in selling pressure, resulting in almost immediate reversals. With each correction, buyers are losing control, and sellers are gaining ground, signaling that bears are in control.
BTC/USDT 30-min chart
This outlook aligns with Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX’s Bitcoin price prediction of a weekend crash in BTC below $50,000. Hayes adds that he is in a BTC short position since it looks “heavy” and expects it to slide below $50,000 over the weekend.
$BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 6, 2024
This sentiment is echoed by technical analysis and is supported y on-chain metrics, pointing to a BTC crash toward $49,000.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Market Structure Flips Bearish
Bitcoin’s recovery rally thesis outlined previously faced invalidation after breaching the $56,963 support level. This move set up a lower low, suggesting a continuation of the bearish outlook. The next key support for Bitcoin price is $54,676, roughly 2% below the current level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showcases the failed flip of the 50 mean level, further enforcing the bearish outlook. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) also forecasts a similar view, revealing a lack of bullish momentum.
If the selling pressure increases, investors can expect BTC to breach the $54,676 and head straight to the $50,000 psychological level. This move would constitute a near-10% crash for BTC.
Although this whole-number level could alleviate some overhead pressure, sidelined buyers will unlikely step up here. The weekly support zone, extending from $43,789 to $41,374, will be a key area to watch. This area served a foothold that propelled BTC price to an all-time high of $73,800, which makes it a high-probability reversal zone.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
According to Glassnode, the short-term holders are heavily underwater, as seen in the short-term Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator. The on-chain data provider adds that short-term holders “unrealized losses dominate overall,” and the magnitude of their losses has “consistently increased over the last few months.” The cost-basis for these short-term holders is around $62,400; until this level is reclaimed, investors can expect a sustained weakness in the market.
BTC Short-term Holder MVRV
Bitcoin Whale Sells $32 Million Worth BTC in 24 Hours
To make matters worse, market maker Wintermute deposited 244 BTC worth $13.7 million to Binance and 101 BTC worth $5.67 million to Bitfinex on September 6. According to data platform Arkham, Wintermute has deposited roughly 575 BTC worth $32.34 million in the past 24 hours. This bearish outlook aligns with the technical analysis and on-chain metric and forecasts a potential crash in Bitcoin price soon.
Wintermute Sells bitcoin
Despite all signs pointing to a bearish outlook, a spike in buying pressure that propels BTC to overcome the $60,000 psychological level could flip the script. Such a development could attract a short-term spike in bullish momentum, propelling BTC To $62,400.
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