Bitcoin’s third-quarter performance stands at 0.89% after dropping 3.47% on September 30. Many in the crypto space expect a bullish start to October and the fourth quarter. Echoing these sentiments, Bitcoin price is up 1% today and trades at $63,955. What can investors expect next from BTC?
Why Did Bitcoin Rally to $65K?
The seven-month consolidation has caused BTC price to rotate in a cyclical fashion. In the past five months, local tops and bottoms have formed in the first or third weeks of every month.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
After Bitcoin’s 10% crash in the first week of September, it formed a local bottom on September 6 and kickstarted a 26% rally to $65k. This is a simple, straightforward reason for why Bitcoin rallied to $65K. However, the macroeconomic policies also influenced BTC’s aforementioned move.
A portion of this uptrend was driven by the US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut decision on September 18. The other half of it can be attributed to the interest rate cut from the Chinese central bank coupled with stimulus package.
Interestingly, this move from China has caused the stock market to note the biggest single-day rally since 2008.
Bitcoin’s Strong Recovery in Question
Historical price performance has caused investors to flip bullish with the start of the fourth quarter. Bitcoin price data for the past 13 years show that October is the third best-performing month behind April and November, with an average return of 26%. And the fourth quarter is the best-performing quarter, with an average return of 80%.
Adding Bitcoin’s historical performance stats with the 26% climb to $65K, it is not surprising to see investors bullish. However, caution is something that traders need to exercise now as a potential correction could be brewing for BTC.
Based on the seven-month consolidation, local tops and bottoms have formed at the end of the third and first weeks. Out of the last eight local tops, four were formed in the third week and two in the first week. If history repeats, there is a high chance that BTC has already set up a short-term top, and a correction could be made next.
Supporting this correction is the sell signal flashed by Santiment’s 30-day MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator. This indicator is used to track the average profit/loss of investors who purchased BTC in the past month. A high positive value indicates unrealized profits and serves as a sell signal and vice versa.
In Bitcoin’s seven-month consolidation, local tops have formed when the 30-day MVRV ratio hit anywhere between 4% to 8%. As of October 1, the on-chain metric has retracted from 8% to nearly 4%.
MVRV 30-day chart
Based on the technical data points, a correction here is highly likely. If there is a reversal, let’s explore where Bitcoin price could form a base.
Bitcoin Price Forecast Hints a Revisit of $61K
From a short-term perspective, BTC is likely to correct. However, this retracment is not entirely bearish as it would provide sidelined buyers a chance to accumulate. Furthermore, the correction wouldn’t negatively impact Bitcoin’s Mars-Vesta bullish thesis, which forecasts a six-digit all-time high for BTC in October 2025.
The daily Bitcoin chart shows two scenarios – a sweep of the sell-side liquidity below $62,350, leading to a continuation of the uptrend or a deep correction toward the $61,837 to $60,345 support zone.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
Regardless of the short-term setback, Bitcoin price prediction hints that the long-term outlook remains bullish as it nears the end of its seven-month consolidation. With the US Federal Reserve anticipating soft-landing and the US presidential election coming to an end, Bitcoin price will likely experience a massive volatility in the fourth quarter of 2024 and a potential retest of the all-time high at $73,777.
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