Legal expert Fred Rispoli has stated that Ripple has a better chance of winning the US Securities and Exchange’s (SEC) appeal in their lawsuit if an unbiased panel is sitting on the case. However, he claimed that the Commission would likely have a 70% to 80% chance of winning if the Judges who sit on the case have a long history of agreeing with the government.
How Ripple Could Defeat The SEC
In an interview on the Thinking Crypto podcast, Rispoli mentioned that the odds would be 70% to 30% in favor of Ripple if the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeal Judges were unbiased. The lawyer noted that the “sad part” about the probabilities of who will win is that it hinges on who the three Judges that get assigned the case are.
CoinGape reported that the US SEC is appealing Judge Analisa Torres’s final judgment on August 7. However, the XRP community has continued questioning whether the appeal will only apply to the $125 million penalty or extend to Judge Torres’ ruling on the programmatic sales last year.
Fred Rispoli gave his opinion, stating that the SEC will likely appeal everything. He noted that the notice of appeal was about the summary judgment and not just the penalty ruling. As such, the Commission can appeal any of the rulings included in the summary judgment.
The legal expert believes that the Commission will focus on programmatic sales, which involves Judge Torres ruling that XRP isn’t a security in itself. He added that they will also seek a higher fine than the $125 million that Judge Torres awarded.
Fred Rispoli noted that the 2nd Circuit’s potential ruling on programmatic sales is most important for XRP holders and the broader crypto community. According to him, the SEC will move to cite the court’s ruling on its case against crypto firms like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken if the court rules in the Commission’s favor on the programmatic sales.
How The SEC Could Lose It All
Fred Rispoli cited a scenario in which the 2nd Circuit could overturn Judge Torres’s rulings in favor of the SEC. He claimed that this would happen if Ripple got a really good panel. The lawyer also alluded to Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer (CLO) Stuart Alderoty’s comments that they intend to file a cross-appeal.
The legal expert remarked that it would be “foolish” if the crypto firm didn’t file a cross-appeal. He claimed that a cross-appeal would further solidify the company’s 70% chance of winning the appeal as the court will likely reach a “split the baby decision” if this happens. Rispoli explained that this means that the 2nd Circuit will decide to affirm all Judge Torres’ rulings rather than give a different opinion.
Meanwhile, the lawyer predicts the case will likely continue until at least January 2026. This aligns with the timeline for both parties to file their court processes. For instance, he stated that the SEC would likely not file its opening brief until December of this year. After that, he expects Ripple’s reply brief won’t come until March.
Therefore, the lawyer believes the crypto firm should push forward on the legislative front, considering how long the case could take. However, he noted that the good thing is that Judge Torres’ ruling on XRP not being a security remains the law of the land until regulatory clarity or a ruling is made in the appeal.
The Ripple SEC lawsuit negatively impacted the XRP price in the 2021 bull run as the Commission instituted the lawsuit in December 2020. However, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto predicted that the XRP Price will cross $5 despite the SEC appeal.
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